Strategizing the future of drones


Future thinking and road mapping for Norway’s biggest aviation operator

Avinor AS is Norway's state-owned aviation company and operates most of the civil airports in Norway. Avinor is also the air-navigation service provider (ANSP) in Norway for all airports except for two. To better understand its future position concerning the rapidly developing drone industry, they asked EGGS Design for help. Through market and user insight, applying methods from business design as well as analysing Avinor’s competencies and interests, we together mapped out different future scenarios and strategic roadmaps.

(Photo: Wikicommons) From being an emerging technology in the mid-2010s, the drone industry has matured rapidly. With a projected annual growth rate of 26%, analysts estimate the industry could become a disruptor in a wide array of areas within a five to ten-year span. In 2018, the Norwegian government published its drone strategy, proposing that Norway be a frontrunner in adopting and developing the industry.

The early adopter paradox - Where should Avinor focus, on what, when? And why?

Avinor is responsible for 44 airports and air navigation services to most airports and all en route services across Norway. Drones, and the connected industry, are expected to impact their operations, either by increased use of the lower commercial airspace, unmanned (UAV), autonomous (AUAV) aircraft, or connected technologies, such as electrification, robotics and Artificial Intelligence.

The dynamics of new technologies in the market, and the lack of a wider variety of use cases, established value chains and drivers, now presents the aviation industries with the "early adopter paradox": Where should they focus, on what, when, and why?

The Drone marked both internationally and nationally is developing rapidly. As the owner, operator and developer of Norway’s national network of airports and the national Air Navigation Service Provider, Avinor is an obvious facilitator and speaking partner connected to this development. We are very pleased with the work done by EGGS Design. They've pointed to how Avinor can take a position in this developing marked by enabling and offering our infrastructure and services to the drone industry.
Dag Falk Petersen, CEO of Avinor

Insights to help understand the future

To better understand its future position, Avinor turned to EGGS Design. Through business design methodologies, desktop research, workshops and quantitative insight, we used Avinor’s core capabilities, resources and ambitions to define their areas of interest. In combination with analysing the external environment, we used this to develop a set of «what if…» scenarios. In interviews with policymakers and industry stakeholders, we used scenarios to test reactions, provoke discussions, highlight potential conflicts of interest, and opportunity areas.

Ten-year horizon with strategic alternatives

We identified two strategical alternatives on a 10+ year horizon, each with a roadmap of related activities and competences, designed to build strategic fit between activities over time.

The project offered Avinor a new perspective on how drones could enter the value chain and reimagine a long-term strategy while staying connected to their core capabilities and competencies

Sounds interesting?

Bjørn Molstad

Get in touch with Lead Business Designer
Bjørn Molstad
+47 413 26 000

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